Manifold Markets Setup Guide

Time: 5 minutes | Difficulty: Easy | Market: Prediction Markets Mode: Full automation | API: REST API (public, no auth for reads) | Docs: docs.manifold.markets/api

This guide wires a Manifold Markets trading bot to the REST API using the botwir3 runtime. Configure API credentials, connect to play-money prediction markets, and run automated strategies locally.

Before you start

Verify that automated operation is permitted under Manifold Markets' current terms of service before deploying. Manifold's ToS explicitly lists "Building bots, automated trading systems, algorithmic tools" as a permitted use. botwir3 provides tools for building structured automation. The user is responsible for compliance with the platform's terms.

ℹ Play-money platform. Manifold Markets uses Mana (M$), a play-money currency. This is not real-money trading. Mana has no cash value and cannot be withdrawn as currency.

Manifold Terms of Service (effective January 31, 2026) | Last verified: May 2026

What you need

• A Manifold Markets account
• An API key from account settings
• The botwir3 runtime downloaded and unzipped
• A strategy config file from the builder

Step 1: Create API credentials

1. Log in to manifold.markets
2. Navigate to Profile → Edit → API Key
3. Generate an API key
4. Copy the key value

Permissions required: The API key grants trading access (Mana) and market creation. Permissions to disable: N/A. Manifold API keys are scoped to the authenticated account.

🔒 Security. Manifold API keys grant access to the account's Mana balance and trading functions. No real money is at stake. The API does not support fund withdrawal.

Step 2: Configure the adapter

Create adapter.json in the bot directory:

{
  "adapter": "manifold",
  "credentials": {
    "api_key": "paste-api-key-here"
  },
  "market_id": "will-ai-pass-the-turing-test-by-2030",
  "environment": "live",
  "rate_limit_ms": 1000
}

market_id: Find market identifiers (slugs) at manifold.markets or via the /v0/markets API endpoint. Each market has a unique slug in the URL.

API keys are stored in a local config file on the machine running the bot. They are not transmitted to botwir3 or any third party. botwir3 never sees, stores, or has access to platform credentials.

Step 3: Test the connection

botwir3 test --adapter manifold

Expected output:

[botwir3] Adapter: manifold
[botwir3] Connection: OK
[botwir3] Permissions: trading (Mana)
[botwir3] Rate limit: rate-limited per API terms

Step 4: Start the bot

botwir3 start --config my-strategy.json

The runtime loads the strategy, computes the spec hash, connects to Manifold via the local API key, and begins evaluating signals. The gate function compares proposed actions against the configured spec. The user is responsible for monitoring the bot and verifying execution outcomes.

Rate limits and considerations

Common Manifold bot configurations include probability calibration (comparing personal models against market prices), arbitrage across correlated markets, and automated market-making on new or low-liquidity markets. Manifold hosted a bot trading competition — the platform actively encourages bot participation. All actions and decisions are recorded in the local ledger.

Troubleshooting

Related guides

• Polymarket Setup Guide — prediction markets, real-money, CLOB API
• Kalshi Setup Guide — prediction markets, CFTC-regulated, real-money
• PredictIt Signal Monitor Setup Guide — prediction markets, signal-only

One bot. $129. No subscription. No $749/mo platform. → Build for Manifold Markets